A state-supervised platform aims to regulate gambling while testing futarchy and collective forecasting.
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Lazia, 22 June 2026 — The National Convention of 2019 has approved the creation of the Futamar prediction market, a state-supervised platform intended to regulate gambling while supporting research into futarchy and collective forecasting.
The market will allow participants to make predictions on selected political, cultural, sporting and administrative questions, subject to limits set by the National Convention and relevant public authorities. Officials said the project was designed to bring informal betting, speculation and "vibes-based forecasting" into a controlled framework, rather than allowing them to develop through unregulated channels.
In a statement, the National Convention said prediction markets could provide useful information about public expectations, institutional risks and policy outcomes, provided that they were governed transparently and not allowed to become "a casino wearing a think tank's glasses".
The platform will initially operate on a limited basis, with restrictions on stakes, eligibility and approved topics. Questions involving private individuals, harassment, personal tragedy or obvious degeneracy will be prohibited.
The Ministry of Digital Affairs said the project would also allow Mahuset to examine futarchy, a proposed model of governance in which prediction markets are used to estimate the likely effects of policy decisions. "Mahuset does not intend to replace constitutional government with gamblers yelling about probabilities," the ministry said. "However, it would be Redditesque in the extreme to ignore tools that may improve forecasting merely because they look faintly cursed."
The National Convention said Futamar would not determine policy by itself, but could be used as an advisory instrument alongside ministerial judgement, expert consultation and ordinary political deliberation. Supporters said prediction markets could help identify overconfidence, reveal hidden disagreement and test whether official expectations survive contact with public forecasting; critics have warned that the system may encourage speculation on public affairs and blur the line between civic analysis and gambling.
The Council of Knowledgeable People dedicated to the Contravention of Redditesque Behaviour is expected to monitor the platform for market manipulation, bad-faith questions, performative contrarianism and attempts to convert every minor dispute into a tradable grievance. The pilot will be reviewed after an initial trial period, with further expansion dependent on evidence of public benefit, responsible use and tolerable levels of annoyingness.
The Chadly Chancery is not expected to award honours for correct predictions, although officials did not rule out recognition for "exceptional foresight, statistical discipline or being annoyingly right in retrospect".
Edited for the relaunch of the Courant van Lazia.
